NextGen, Voting, and Statistics...

Welcome to week five of the Graduate Program. Yes... I survived the first official month. And what a month it was. After returning from Hong Kong, two days home and off to Korea for four days. Home one day and I'm back in Bend babysitting the little ones while the parental figures are out of town. Thursday I am off to Austin to watch my two little ones down there, while those parental figures head out. Yes... I am the flying nanny. Next Monday, back on reserve.

In statistics we've been working on how to design a research project. How to sample. Size, randomness, etc. And this brings me to my point. 

The FAA testing for NextGen has been on a volunteer basis. Sounds like a random sample? I don't think so. The only people who will be flying to the FAA training center and exposing their ability are checkairman, instructors, or have just gone through training. Highly competent and confident pilots.... those who have the ability and do not fear the scrutiny. Meaning, they are only testing the best of the best. Is that a valid and reliable study? Might be reliable as all pilots will perform equally as well...but not sure if that performance represents the normal population. 

1936, "President Alf Landon"... was figured to win because they sent a poll to all people in the phone book and to those who owned cars.  He was supposed to beat Roosevelt with 57% to 43%. However, Roosevelt won with 61% of the votes. Why were they so wrong?

The reason is they polled only the wealthy. So this brings me up to today's election process. Does sending out ballets that someone has to place a stamp on, eliminating the poor from voting? Granted, you and I probably don't think that 49 cents for a stamp is a big deal. However, when you're a single parent, working to make ends meet, and  you don't believe your voice will be heard... will you take the time to buy a stamp and throw away half a dollar? Do you have time and money to get that stamp?

Thus my questions are these... why in the world are we not allowing free postage on the election ballots? Won't we get a better cross representation of the people? And why should voting cost money? The government can send out surveys for consensus data without postage required. 

On to week five. Bend. Austin. Seattle. Life is a journey... enjoy! 

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